The future of fossil fuels

The idea that our society should replace fossil fuels (coal, gas and oil) with other, cleaner energy sources is very popular among public opinion. But the reality is that today, almost 82% of the primary commercial energy consumed in the world comes from fossil fuels. Renewable energies, including the traditional biomass used in developing countries, supplies 12.5% of the total, while nuclear energy represents 5.5%.

It is obvious that we will not be able to get by without oil, gas and coal for a very long period of time. Nobody doubts the potential for growth of renewable energies in industrialised countries. Nevertheless, it is estimated that by 2030, fossil fuels will still represent a little over 82% of the primary energy consumed. If a technological revolution does not take place that facilitates and accelerates the transition to an economy based on hydrogen and/or cutting-edge fusion technologies, then the conclusion is clear: even if the percentage of fossil fuel consumption decreases in the future in favour of renewable energies, the total amount of coal, oil and gas used will rise with respect to present-day levels.

In this context, the aim of the lecture is to look forward to 2030 to try to find (with the logical reservations that are inherent in any prediction) answers to a series of questions of enormous importance, and which are obligatory for any discussion on energy sustainability: do we have sufficient reserves and resources of oil, gas and coal to supply the future demand? What extraction capacity should we aim for in order to meet this demand? What implications will this have for world trade? What degree of dependence will industrialised countries have to put up with? And finally, what will the environmental impact be for the planet as a result of the continued, growing use of fossil fuels?

To attempt to answer these questions, several different reports exist on the long-term forecast for the growth in demand for and consumption of primary energy. These include the World Energy Outlook (WEO) by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the International Energy Outlook of the Energy Information Administration of the Department of Energy of the United States government, the conclusions of which are of key importance to an understanding of the problem addressed in this lecture.